U.S. Presidential Election: A Guide to Polymarket’s Resolution Process with UMA’s Optimistic Oracle

TL;DR

The U.S. Presidential Election market is heating up on Polymarket. How will the outcome be decided? The outcome will be decided when AP, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. Otherwise, the market will resolve on January 20, 2025, to the Inaugurated President.

Introduction

Polymarket is the world’s leading prediction market and uses UMA’s optimistic oracle to resolve markets according to rules written at market creation. Polymarket’s ruleset for U.S. Presidential markets gives clear guidance on how the markets should be resolved:

“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025), this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.”

In this post, we outline how the rules apply in three different possible scenarios.

Scenario 1

Associated Press (AP), Fox News, and NBC all name the same winner; the market will resolve to ‘Yes’ for the winner.

Scenario 2

If the Associated Press (AP), Fox News, and NBC do not announce or agree on the winner, the U.S. Presidential markets will stay open. Once all three sources agree, the market will resolve ‘Yes’ for the winner.

Scenario 3

If, by the U.S. Presidential Inauguration date of January 20, 2025,  the Associated Press (AP), Fox News, and NBC still have not all announced the same winner, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated. The market will resolve to ‘Yes’ for the newly inaugurated President.

Conclusion

The outcome of the U.S. Presidential election market will be decided if AP, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If not, the market will resolve on January 20, 2025, based on whoever is inaugurated as President.